All Things Digital reported yesterday that video streaming provider and prospective telco partner Vudu is in talks to be acquired, with retailing giant Wal-Mart mentioned as the possible buyer. Vudu for a time was pushing itself hard as a possible partner for small, independent telcos for whom IPTV was too big and risky an investment, but who wanted to leverage existing broadband connections to provide customers with more video choices. Vudu also has partnered with companies like Entone to put its technology into set-top boxes and other products.

If Wal-Mart buys the company, it seems likely that Vudu's technology would become more embedded in TVs and other devices, and it's not immediately clear what that would mean for the company's other service provider and vendor partners.

For more:
- All Things Digital has this report

Related articles
Entone and Vudu partnered last year
Toledo Telephone Co. in Washington partnered with Vudu

What kind of year will 2010 be in IPTV and related fields? Maybe the only thing that can be said for certain is that the number of IPTV subscribers will continue to grow, both in the U.S. and worldwide. Though, they may not continue to grow at the robust pace we have grown accustomed to in recent years.

Beyond that, I think some of the trends that closed out 2009 suggest that it could be a year of fits and starts and frustratingly slow progress for the sector. Give those trends, five of which were highlighted among FierceIPTV's top stories of 2009, here are 10 things that I think will--or in most cases actually won't--happen in 2010:

1) AT&T won't acquire DirecTV: The stars seem to be aligning to enable this deal to happen, but solid IPTV success for AT&T and an already-successful satellite TV partnership argue against it. Does AT&T have more to gain by owning DirecTV, or could such a deal just cause conflicts with DirecTV's other telco resale partners?

2) Cable TV operators will continue to acquire broadcasters: The Comcast-NBC deal was just the beginning. Having said that, I have no idea who will buy whom next, but other major service providers, telcos included, won't quietly cede control of the content universe to a single cable TV operator.

3) Telcos will increasingly launch localized content: Battles with the cable TV incumbents over access to local news, sports and information programming suggest that modest efforts so far by Verizon and AT&T are just the beginning of a new trend.

4) TV Everywhere's progress will be delayed: Public advocacy groups are appealing to regulators, which could tie up TV Everywhere in controversy during the coming months. Some TV Everywhere providers also may proceed with only limited launches as they try to figure out how authentication should work and what mix of content is best.

5) The FCC's set-top box review won't shake up the market: Many different parties want many different things out of the review, and that means this issue will drag on. Expect some statements out of the FCC to go along with next month's update on the national broadband plan, but don't expect a completely open and revitalized market anytime soon.

6) The Comcast-NBC deal will face year-long scrutiny: Anti-competitive concerns will slow down this joint venture. The ability to dominate much of the programming sector is too good an opportunity for Comcast to pass up, but what sort of regulatory conditions will it have to agree to in order to get its joint venture to proceed?

7) Hulu won't go away: Verizon chief Ivan Siedenberg said that Hulu eventually "won't matter." While Hulu and similar ventures will face an uncertain future if the Comcast-NBC deal proceeds and TV Everywhere gains growth quickly, stats like video stream growth of more than 300 percent and monthly user growth of more than 95 percent in 2009 hardly suggest a dying phenomenon.

8) Rural telcos won't give up on IPTV: Last year at this time, IP-Prime's demise highlighted the uncertainties for small telcos looking at launching IPTV services. But, other parties have aggressively moved in to help those telcos, while vendors like Microsoft have made strides to make their platforms more appealing and more affordable from the little guys.

9) Home networking won't be dominated by a single technology: The G.hn home networking standard won't change anything about the diverse home network technology universe anytime soon. The standard is inching along toward a commercial impact, but that impact is unlikely to be felt this year, and even when commercial G.hn gear becomes available, existing home networking technologies will continue to thrive.

10) Targeted advertising won't have a major impact in 2010: At this time last year, it looked like 2009 was going to be a big year for progress toward new TV advertising models, in particular targeted advertising. But, those projections were way off base, as the industry is still struggling with the best way to cultivate and promote targeted ads. Linear ad insertion seems likely to be the major focus of TV service providers in 2010.

Agree? Disagree? What are some of your predictions for the coming year? Let us know.

-Dan

The year did not start off well for fans of IPTV. Tiscali shut down its IPTV service in its native Italy (news that actually broke in the waning hours of 2008), and was having trouble finding success with its U.K. IPTV venture. Meanwhile, also in the U.K., BT disputed perceptions that its own TV service was suffering for subscribers.

At the same time, telco TV players and other TV service providers worldwide were nervous about the potential effects of a tough recession. The poorly-orchestrated digital TV transition was delayed, another concern for pay TV operators who looked likely to benefit from the conversion.

By the end of the year, things were looking somewhat better. IPTV subscriber growth was slower throughout the year, but telco TV carriers didn't take a direct hit from the recession, as they continued--in the U.S., and for the most part, worldwide--to grow their customer bases and increase TV revenues. Tiscali U.K. found a savior in Carphone Warehouse, BT revised its hopes for BT Vision and AT&T had enough marketing magic left to reach 2 million IPTV subscribers.

Still, another big telco, Qwest Communications, entered the year uninterested in becoming an IPTV provider, and ended the year still uninterested. Through struggles and success, some things never change.

Related articles
Tiscali shut down its IPTV service in Italy
BT Vision fought criticism last January
Early fears of video cord-cutting subsided
Obama got the DTV transition delay he wanted
BT Vision settled for more modest goals
Carphone Warehouse  gave Tiscali U.K. hope
Slower growth didn't stop AT&T from reaching 2 million subscribers
Qwest started the year uninterested in IPTV

One of the ingredients in South Korea's emergence as a global broadband leader has been a government-steered national focus on promoting new technology. With that in mind, the Korea Communications Commission (KCC) declared December 12 to be IPTV Day. The date was chosen because it is the one-year anniversary of the launch of linear IPTV service.

It may not exactly sound like Mardi Gras, but perhaps young IPTV markets like the U.S. could use such a promotional push to make sure there is continued energy and focus on IPTV innovations. Maybe our own Federal Communications Commission could do something similar--though the FCC may have one or two other priorities on its mind these days.

Anyway, Happy IPTV Day, Korea!

For more:
- The Korea IT Times has this post

Related articles
IPTV sign-ups surged this summer in Korea
Korea Telecom made our FierceIPTV Watch List

Market research firm Point Topic followed up an earlier statement from September's Broadband World Forum Europe event, reiterating that there were more than 26.3 million IPTV subscribers worldwide at the end of the second quarter this year. That's a 53 percent jump from the 17.1 million subscribers recorded at the end of the second quarter 2008. The growth is not merely a measure of success in mature markets, but more intriguingly the rapid rise of new IPTV regions like South America, Eastern Europe and China, the firm said.

For more:
- Here's the Point Topic press release

Related articles
North America IPTV subs hit 3.8 million in early 2009
IPTV numbers have a habit of doubling
IPTV subscribers grew five-fold from 2005 to 2007

AT&T issued a statement this morning at the UBS 37th Annual Global Media and Communications Conference acknowledging that it expects to land its 2 millionth AT&T U-verse TV customer today. That means the telco will meet its long-anticipated goal of having 2 million IPTV subscribers by the end of this year, despite a general softening on the telco TV market this year. AT&T has added 1 million U-verse TV customers over the last year.

The statement comes just days after AT&T announced several year-ending special promotions designed to boost broadband, TV and service bundle sign-ups. The subscriber milestone was mentioned as part of a broader announcement in which AT&T launched a new Internet Max Turbo broadband offering with speeds of up to 24 Mbps downstream and up to 3 Mbps upstream. That service is available now in three markets: Austin, San Antonio and St. Louis.

In the announcement, AT&T also mentioned that U-verse TV gained 13 new applications during 2009, bringing the total number of U-verse TV apps to 21. The company also added more than 25 new high-definition channels and continued to improve its Total Home DVR offering.

For more:
- Here's the AT&T press release

Related articles
AT&T had 1.8 million U-verse TV subs as of Q3
AT&T neared 1 million IPTV subs a year ago this week

Today at FierceIPTV, you'll be able to review my FierceIPTV Watch List for 2009, a list that incorporated quite a but of input from our readers. Having wrapped up that report, I'd like to get all of you started on another project. In December, I'll by running a year-end review and some predictions for the year ahead, but given that we are also closing in on the end of the decade, I'd also like to put together a decade-end review.

It's a big responsibility: taking a look across the entire decade--the first decade of IPTV and telco TV, you might say--and making a list of what was most memorable. That's why I need your help. I'm looking for the big news of the decade about TV service providers, information about the biggest, most influential innovations of the decade, and of course the flops--those things you wish you could forget.

My initial thought about this decade is that it has given birth to IPTV as the technological basis for an alternative TV service, but that we have moved way beyond technology as a differentiator. It started as something of a lark, and an expensive one at that, but telcos have successfully joined the mainstream of TV service providers.

So, what do you remember from the last decade of the IPTV and telco TV sector?

-Dan

Consolidated Communications, the Mattoon, Ill.-based rural telco with operations in Illinois, Texas and Pennsylvania, reported third quarter earnings today that were marked by the company's highest-ever IPTV subscriber additions for a single quarter.

Consolidated signed up 1,800 customers during the third quarter, and now has more than 21,500 total, according to a press release issued prior to today's earnings call. The company's IPTV subscriber take has increased by almost 40 percent over the past year, and pair bonding and other measures have helped the telco pass an additional 18,000 homes with IPTV capabilities.

FierceIPTV will add further details to this post following the earnings call.

For more:
CNN Money has the Consolidated press release

Related articles
Consolidated added wireless IPTV capability in September
Consolidated added 1,500 IPTV subs in the second quarter

Someone asked me recently what I thought was standing in the way of IPTV's success. I thought for a moment, and said, "Nothing. IPTV's already successful." (I only wish it had been such a concise sound bite, but that's basically what I said.)

I believe that, too, although my other footnote to the statement is that when I talked about IPTV, what I usually mean is the whole world of telco TV, IPTV included, as well as RF-based TV architectures like what Verizon Communications has (or started out with), as well as whatever alternative video-on-demand schemes other telcos might be using.

Could telco TV stand to keep growing? Certainly, and it will, though at a slower pace than previously, if third quarter results are to be believed. But, it's successful enough that telcos no longer need to be ready to distance themselves from the TV business if it doesn't work out. They can now safely integrate their TV services with the rest of their networks, services and operations. It can start to benefit from the seamless network environment telcos are trying to set up, and telcos can start moving on the initial busy work of winning over customers and start giving them something more: New programming, new DVR functionality, new home network capabilities, new personalized TV content and advertising, new flexibility to manage and access content.

All of the above will be key themes of TelcoTV 2009 in Orlando.

The new programming need will be addressed in one of the opening keynotes on Wed., Nov. 11. With apologies to opening keynoter AT&T CTO John Donovan (Update 11/8: Looks like AT&T is sending someone else instead of Donovan), I think the most interesting of this morning's keynotes could come from Ramu Potarazu, CEO of the new Avail-TVN, the wholesale programming firm formed from the merger of Avail media and TVN Entertainment (with an assist from investor and key partner the NRTC).

Avail-TVN is one of a crop of players looking to supply programming to the telco TV crowd, most specifically to the smallest telcos who can't employ their own Hollywood liaisons. At the recent Supercomm show, I happened to be at a gear vendor's booth when a call came in wondering where one of their own rural customers might start in finding a wholesale resource for its programming needs, so this could be a pretty timely speech.

Later on Wednesday, at 1 p.m., the session "Personalizing TV: Reality or Urban Legend," sounds pretty promising. Personalization is a concept the industry has been talking about for a while, without much real movement. It's time to figure out what telco TV networks might really be capable of in this regard. Could we eventually see a la carte programming packages, or will personalization have its limits?

On Thursday, Nov. 12, at 2 p.m., the "Advanced TV Advertising" session presents another timely opportunity to discuss a different angle on the personalization topic (and the angle telcos are secretly most interested in because it's also the big revenue angle). A major push toward targeted and interactive advertising in the last few years (and obviously on the TelcoTV 2008 show floor) has relaxed back to a more gradual introduction of linear ad insertion capabilities, yet it's still a segment where telcos have barely dipped their toes in the water.

Home networking should be a very hot topic on the show floor, with competing interests HomePNA and MoCA having an exhibitor presence. The evolution toward a potential unified home networking standard (though we are well aware "unified" is a loaded word) has heated up the competitive battle between the technologies that have already planted their flag on the market landscape, so visiting one group's booth immediately followed by a visit to the other's should be good sport.

Meanwhile, 3-D TV, perhaps the most unanticipated technology discussion of 2009, will have a TelcoTV session devoted to it--as will TV application widgets, perhaps the most over-anticipated (and therefore possibly underwhelming) industry discussions of 2009.

That gives you a few items to add to your to-do list at the show. On Nov. 17 (once I've had a chance to digest TelcoTV 2009 news and trends), look for FierceIPTV's TelcoTV 2009 post-show report.

Also, thanks to many readers who pitched ideas for our upcoming FierceIPTV Watch List. You'll find that in our Special Report area on our homepage next Tuesday, Nov. 10.

-Dan

Someone asked me recently what I thought was standing in the way of IPTV's success. I thought for a moment, and said, "Nothing. IPTV's already successful." (I only wish it had been such a concise sound bite, but that's basically what I said.)

I believe that, too, although my other footnote to the statement is that when I talked about IPTV, what I usually mean is the whole world of telco TV, IPTV included, as well as RF-based TV architectures like what Verizon Communications has (or started out with), as well as whatever alternative video-on-demand schemes other telcos might be using.

Could telco TV stand to keep growing? Certainly, and it will, though at a slower pace than previously, if third quarter results are to be believed. But, it's successful enough that telcos no longer need to be ready to distance themselves from the TV business if it doesn't work out. They can now safely integrate their TV services with the rest of their networks, services and operations. It can start to benefit from the seamless network environment telcos are trying to set up, and telcos can start moving on the initial busy work of winning over customers and start giving them something more: New programming, new DVR functionality, new home network capabilities, new personalized TV content and advertising, new flexibility to manage and access content.

All of the above will be key themes of TelcoTV 2009 in Orlando next week.

The new programming need will be addressed in one of the opening keynotes on Wed., Nov. 11. With apologies to opening keynoter AT&T CTO John Donovan, I think the most interesting of this morning's keynotes could come from Ramu Potarazu, CEO of the new Avail-TVN, the wholesale programming firm formed from the merger of Avail media and TVN Entertainment (with an assist from investor and key partner the NRTC).

Avail-TVN is one of a crop of players looking to supply programming to the telco TV crowd, most specifically to the smallest telcos who can't employ their own Hollywood liaisons. At the recent Supercomm show, I happened to be at a gear vendor's booth when a call came in wondering where one of their own rural customers might start in finding a wholesale resource for its programming needs, so this could be a pretty timely speech.

Later on Wednesday, at 1 p.m., the session "Personalizing TV: Reality or Urban Legend," sounds pretty promising. Personalization is a concept the industry has been talking about for a while, without much real movement. It's time to figure out what telco TV networks might really be capable of in this regard. Could we eventually see a la carte programming packages, or will personalization have its limits?

On Thursday, Nov. 12, at 2 p.m., the "Advanced TV Advertising" session presents another timely opportunity to discuss a different angle on the personalization topic (and the angle telcos are secretly most interested in because it's also the big revenue angle). A major push toward targeted and interactive advertising in the last few years (and obviously on the TelcoTV 2008 show floor) has relaxed back to a more gradual introduction of linear ad insertion capabilities, yet it's still a segment where telcos have barely dipped their toes in the water.

Home networking should be a very hot topic on the show floor, with competing interests HomePNA and MoCA having an exhibitor presence. The evolution toward a potential unified home networking standard (though we are well aware "unified" is a loaded word) has heated up the competitive battle between the technologies that have already planted their flag on the market landscape, so visiting one group's booth immediately followed by a visit to the other's should be good sport.

Meanwhile, 3-D TV, perhaps the most unanticipated technology discussion of 2009, will have a TelcoTV session devoted to it--as will TV application widgets, perhaps the most over-anticipated (and therefore possibly underwhelming) industry discussions of 2009.

That gives you a few items to add to your to-do list at the show. On Nov. 17 (once I've had a chance to digest TelcoTV 2009 news and trends), look for FierceIPTV's TelcoTV 2009 post-show report.

Also, thanks to many readers who pitched ideas for our upcoming FierceIPTV Watch List. You'll find that in our Special Report area on our homepage next Tuesday, Nov. 10.

-Dan